As football fever builds ahead of the World Cup, employers are preparing for a rise in annual leave requests around key matches. But according to HR and absence management software provider BrightHR, they should be more worried about an onslaught of sickness and lateness.
BrightHR analysed absence data from more than 1.2 million employees from 68,879 businesses across the UK. Here are some employee behaviour predictions for this summer’s football World Cup.
Key findings
- The day after England’s first group match is the most booked off day for over-60s for the whole tournament.
- BrightHR forecasts that employers will pay over £94 million in sick pay during the tournament. As day-one SSP is now in place, this is the first time some employers will have to pay for sickness.
- BrightHR forecasts at least 3.6 million sick days will be taken during the tournament.
- Lateness increased by 50% after matches in 2024, and based on the kick-off times in 2026, BrightHR predicts this will only go up too.
- We’re even starting to see people booking time off with the reason “It’s coming home”. Fingers crossed…
Alan Price, CEO at BrightHR, says, “Given the time difference between the UK, the US, Canada and Mexico, the day after matches will be the danger zone for sickness and lateness at this World Cup. Late kick-offs and extended licensing hours will absolutely have an impact on absence rates in England and Scotland. And even if fans are watching at home, there’s the risk of a dodgy burger being blamed for adding to an already queasy stomach the next day.
“After England’s 2024 nailbiter against Slovakia, two goals in stoppage time saw fans celebrating into the early hours. It was after this match, rather than the final, when sickness spiked at 214%, with over a quarter of absences put down to food poisoning or stomach bugs.
“Looking at the men’s Euro 2024 matches and trends from 2025, we predict at least 3.6 million sick days will be taken in the UK during the tournament. And that comes at a cost for employers. Now the Employment Rights Act 2025 is in place, employers will have to pay sick pay from the first day of employee sickness for the first time. The worry is that sickness will rise as workers will receive at least some pay while off sick. And it’s not a small figure. Based on our workings, employers will have to fork out at least £94 million in sick pay during the tournament.
“Boomers are planning on not going to work at all. Thursday 18th June – the day after the first England group match – is the most booked day off so far for over-60s throughout the entire tournament. Surprisingly it’s also a date that doesn’t even appear in the top 10 for the rest of the workforce. There could be many reasons for this. With a 9pm kick off, maybe older employees are planning a lie in after a late night. Or other workers could potentially be saving their annual leave for the school holidays, which start just after the tournament ends.
“For those who aren’t booking time off, we’ll be tracking sickness absence and lateness trends. Employee lateness increased by 50% after Euro 2024 matches, and this time most matches start later at night. So, you can expect a few sore heads and late starts from members of your workforce. It’s ok to give your staff a bit of leeway but make sure you treat everyone fairly or risk accusations of favourable treatment.”
